Simulating price patterns for tradable green certificates to promote electricity generation from wind

This article uses computer simulation to anticipate the price dynamics in a market for Tradable Green Certificates (TGCs). These markets have been used in Europe to promote generation of electricity from renewable resources like wind. Similar markets have been proposed in the United States of America (USA) where the certificates are called Renewable Energy Credits (RECs). The certificates are issued to the generating companies for each megawatt-hour of renewable electricity generation. The companies may sell the certificates in a market, and the revenues from certificate sales provide an extra incentive to invest in new generating capacity. Proponents argue that this market-based incentive can be designed to support government mandates for a growing fraction of electricity generation from renewable sources. In the USA, these mandates are set by the states and are known as Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS). We simulate the price dynamics of a market designed to support an aggressive mandate for wind generation in the northwestern USA. The simulations show that the certificate price climbs rapidly to the cap in the early years after the market opens. Investors then react to these high prices with construction of new wind capacity. After a few years, wind generation meets, and then exceeds the requirement. We show that this pattern appears again and again when the simulations are repeated with wide variations in the estimates of behavioral parameters. We use the model to study the impact of different trading strategies by the wind companies and by the distribution companies. We also study the simulated market response if the USA adopts the carbon allowance market envisioned in The Climate Stewardship Act. The article concludes with recommendations for policy makers involved in TGC market design. r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.